The Press Break's College Basketball Viewing Guide
Selection Sunday is exactly a month from this week, signaling the arrival of the best and most intense time on the basketball calendar.
The coming few weeks determine positioning for the NCAA Tournament, and in preparation for this critical juncture, The Press Break offers a daily watch guide.
The Feb. 12 docket isn’t quite as loaded as last Saturday’s, which served as the perfect entre into the February Frenzy before March Madness. Still, it’s not lacking for intriguing matchups with potential Tournament implications.
No. 20 Texas at No. 10 Baylor
Noon ET/9 a.m. PT, ESPN
Two teams coming off of diametrically opposite performances against Kansas, Texas bolstered its standing with a 79-76 defeat of the Jayhawks that lived up to its Big Monday billing.
The Longhorns play like the typical Chris Beard-coached team, leading the nation in points allowed per game at 55.8. It makes for an intriguing juxtaposition against the usual Scott Drew-coached team’s scoring pop, as Baylor comes in averaging 77.8 points per game (38th in the nation).
That’s not too far off the torrid pace last year’s Final Four-winning team produced of 82.9 points per game, and this year’s Bears are holding opponents to fewer points per game (62.2 vs. 65.5). But for as much as BU looked ready to repeat in the season’s first two months, the past month casts doubt.
Baylor’s absolute rinsing at Kansas last Saturday put a punctuation mark on a rough month for the defending national champions. The Bears have lost twice at home, once to a good Texas Tech team and immediately after to a bad Oklahoma State. They gave up 87 points in the loss to an Alabama bunch firmly on the bubble1, and 83-59 rout in Lawrence wasn’t as close as the final score.
The last time to win back-to-back Final Fours, Florida in 2006 and 2007, hit its own rough patch around this point in the ‘07 campaign. There’s certainly a challenge in maintaining at 100 percent when guaranteed every opponents’ best game.
This is also a different Baylor team than a year ago, though. The leading scorer currently, James Akinjo, was at Arizona last season (and Georgetown the season before that).
Saturday feels like a significant litmus test for Baylor’s Tournament bona fides.
Seton Hall at No. 15 Villanova
1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT, FOX
The Big East is a war of attrition for the assorted mid-tier teams trying to make the NCAA Tournament. Seton Hall is perhaps the quintessential example.
The Pirates’ losses include a 21-point blowout at home to St. John’s, and a 96-92 decision at DePaul. However, Seton Hall also boasts wins over UConn and Xavier in conference play — two teams almost assuredly in the field, barring catastrophic collapses2 — and beat Texas in non-conference play.
Seton Hall’s in position to either play its way into the field of off the bubble in the coming weeks, starting this week with consecutive road games at Villanova and UConn.
Bryce Aiken has been out of the lineup for the past three weeks due to a concussion, and Pirates coach Kevin Willard told reporters his return won’t be “anytime soon.” Myles Cale may be the scoring X-factor Hall needs alongside Jared Rhoden for the stretch run.
Rutgers at No. 14 Wisconsin
2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT, FS1
Just as it started to look like Rutgers’ NCAA Tournament chances were cooked like Ma’s gravy and moozadell3, the Scarlet Knights pull me back in.
Rutgers has a tall mountain to climb, ranked just 84th in KenPom and 91st in NET — the latter ranking behind teams like Towson and St. John’s — but the Scarlet Knights started the journey with wins last week over Michigan State and Ohio State. The former was an absolute pasting of 21 points.
Saturday’s visit to Madison might completely deflate Rutgers’ March Madness prospects; Wisconsin has, at times, looked like a Final Four team and Johnny Davis a Wooden Award contender. The Badgers’ four losses are all to teams ranked in the KenPom top 25, with one exception: Providence, which is ranked in the top 20 of the AP Poll.
But maybe Ron Harper catches fire from 3-point range, Caleb McConnell harasses Davis into turnovers and Rutgers stuns the Kohl Center. The Scarlet Knights are livin’ on a prayer4.
***MUST-SEE MID-MAJOR OF THE DAY***
Chattanooga at Furman
2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT, ESPN+
With respect to the WCC nightcap between rivals Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga, the Must-See Mid-Major takes us to the SoCon. I have been on the Southern Conference basketball train for the last few years, and have receipts!
At Athlon Sports in 2020, just before the abortive NCAA Tournament, I campaigned for the SoCon to receive multiple bids. Before Fletcher Magee went off in Wofford’s upset of Seton Hall in the 2019 Tournament, I spotlighted him for Deadspin before it devolved into its current, messy state. That article now lives for free on Patreon.
Point is, I’ve banged the gong for SoCon hoops for a few years now and that isn’t changing in 2022. The conference again features some of the best offense in the country — three rank in the top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency, including these two, and five in the top 100 — and has multiple teams that look NCAA Tournament worthy.
Unfortunately, 2019 dampened by expectations for a multiple-bid SoCon, but the case is still there to be made. Both Chattanooga and Furman rank in the top 80 for NET, and are right next to each other at 67 and 68 in KenPom. That the Tournament field is 68 teams is noteworthy; of course, it’s never the top 68 that actually advance, but I’m just noting an interesting coincidence.
Furman’s losses include an overtime decision at Belmont and a three-point margin at Mississippi State, as well as a two-point loss in the last meeting with Chattanooga.
The effective 3-point shooting Paladins have dropped back-to-back games, however, making this one something approaching desperation time. Chattanooga’s been without big man Silvio De Sousa, but is expected to be back on Saturday.
His presence gives the Mocs an advantage in the paint, but watch out for Furman’s Alex Hunter. He’s one of college basketball’s most dangerous 3-point shooters.
No. 12 UCLA at No. 21 USC
10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT, ESPN
Interesting fact about the Crosstown Showdown: Andy Enfield’s Trojans are undefeated against Mick Cronin’s Bruins since the latter took over in Westwood.
USC’s thrilling, buzzer-beating win to end the 2020 regular season was one of the last games I watched before the world went to hell.
In 2021, almost one year to the day, Tahj Eaddy replicated Jonah Matthews’ buzzer-beater at Pauley Pavilion.
If those games are any indication, Saturday’s late-night affair should be a blast.
The two programs have undergone some role reversal this season: While Cronin’s teams have long been known for their physical defense, the 2021-22 Bruins are high-scoring and uptempo. Enfield made his name nationally as the head coach of Dunk City at Florida Gulf Coast, and employed a similar brand of basketball at USC before this year. The Trojans now employ their uncanny length to frustrate opponents.
A contrast between UCLA’s outstanding perimeter playmakers Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez, Tyger Campbell and Jules Bernard against the defensive dynamo Boogie Ellis, rangy Drew Peterson and Isaiah Mobley — expected back from injury — shapes this rivalry matchup.
Alabama may have the strangest NCAA Tournament resume of all-time. The Tide are No. 19 in KenPom with wins over last year’s two title teams, Gonzaga and Baylor, but gave 92 and 82 points in losses to bad Missouri and Georgia Teams. They’re 15-9 overall and No. 18 in KenPom, so I lean toward them safely making the field, but they face a gauntlet down the stretch (Arkansas, Mississippi State, at Kentucky and LSU) and could just as easily lose to Vanderbilt, South Carolina or Texas A&M.
Xavier is actually on catastrophic collapse watch, though, having lost at home to DePaul last week.
Did you know that the late James Gandolfini was a Rutgers fan? Huh? Did you?
Bon Jovi is from Jersey!