Q&A: Dan Lanning & Kalen DeBoer Come to the Pac; 2022 College Football Over-and-Undervalued Teams
Writing the Q&A is one of my favorite activities for the newsletter. You all provide such interesting topics, and I can’t express my gratitude enough. Producing the column this week is somewhat cathartic, providing me an excuse to write while diverting my thoughts away from Uvalde even just for a moment.
If I were to become consumed every time there was gun violence in America, or even just each time there was a mass shooting, I wouldn’t accomplish anything. At the same time, there’s a fine line between going on with your life and falling into apathy.
The Robb Elementary massacre hit me especially hard because, as noted in the newsletter earlier this week, my oldest son is an elementary school student. I was also still reeling from the Buffalo murders, so the combination hit me like a boxer going low then following up with a KO shot to the jaw.
Getting political is a surefire way to alienate potential readers, and I’ll level with you — I’d like, if not need not, as many subscribers to The Press Break as possible. But the murders of children attending school or customers shopping for groceries on a Saturday afternoon isn’t political.
Believing the general population shouldn’t have largely unfettered access to instruments of mass killings — please note the way this was written, as I didn’t write guns, of which there are practical uses, but rather semi-automatics with high-capacity magazines designed exclusively for killing people — or believing that there should be no place for inciting racial violence on our platforms of information isn’t akin to disagreeing on the tax code. If that bothers you, unsubscribe.
Now, with that addressed, thank you again for your contributions to the newsletter, including questions for Q&A. Before diving in, allow me to direct to you to my Awful Announcing piece on that time Chris Russo drove the plot of the dark, controversial film Bad Lieutenant.
For future editions of Q&A, send your questions on Twitter @KyleKensing, or email pressbreaknewsletter@gmail.com.
Without spoiling too much — I produced the Pac-12 preview for the Lindy’s college football preview, which hits newsstands in the coming weeks (or can be ordered directly online!) — I’m high on both Oregon and Washington heading into 2022.
Both programs made ideal hires based on what they needed to address immediately. In Oregon’s case, Mario Cristobal’s staff had the Ducks right on the cusp of where that program wants to be through a blueprint of aggressive recruiting and winning in the trenches on game days.
Dan Lanning promises to continue each of the defining traits that won Oregon two Pac-12 championships and a Rose Bowl under Cristobal. Like Cristobal, he’s a branch off the Nick Saban coaching tree with impressive track records on recruiting and line play.
He inherits a roster built to win immediately, and I suspect will. Oregon is my favorite to repeat as North champion.
For Washington, this hire was much more about reshaping the course of the program. I initially loved the Jimmy Lake hire, having spoken at length with Huskies players when he was defensive coordinator. I assumed he would continue UW on the course Chris Petersen had set, but for whatever reason, it just didn’t work from a personality perspective.
As far as working from a strategic perspective, Lake’s brief tenure continued one dubious trajectory of the latter Petersen years: anemic offense. Kalen DeBoer’s hire immediately addresses that issue.
DeBoer will need time to get the right personnel in place, but his quick turnarounds of the Fresno State offense (twice) and Indiana suggest he can jumpstart the Huskies in short order.
I like Washington to improve dramatically from a season ago, but not necessarily contend for a Pac-12 Championship Game berth. I have UW tentatively slotted at No. 3 in the division1, thanks in part to the root cause of the Huskies’ precipitous decline in offensive production — that being the departure for Jonathan Smith for Oregon State.
Smith’s steadily built the Beavers up from the depths, and 2022 should be his best squad. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Rivalry Formerly Known As The Civil War decides a berth into the conference title game.
Meanwhile, there’s an old saying:
Perhaps I should heed these words, as it burned me badly a season ago, but Stanford really could be poised for a bounce-back season.
Disclaimer: I do not gamble on college football, so consider that carefully if using any of the follower as a road map at the sportsbook.
That said, some lower-end win totals I like to outperform expectations:
Oregon State, 6.5: The Beavers have steadily improved each season under Jonathan Smith and were right on the cusp of being legitimate North-division contenders in 2021. Oregon State returns a bevy of talent, has one of the best offensive lines in the Pac-12, and faces a manageable schedule.
Rutgers, 4.5: Much depends on the first month due in large part to how much of a gauntlet the Big Ten East is, but should the Scarlet Knights beat Boston College in Week 1, there’s a realistic hope of RU heading into October and the Ohio State matchup at 4-0. Rutgers would need to win a home game against Iowa at the end of September and avoid a stumble at Temple, but both are doable. Greg Schiano’s teams in Piscataway have often overachieved, and this in particularly is primed to be a surprise seven-win bunch.
Kansas, 2.5: Last November’s win at Texas — and, for those who need a reminder, Kansas scored 57 points in a win at Texas last November — offers a potential foreshadowing of better days to come in Lawrence.
KU has been a bottom-feeder since Mark Mangino’s firing, making a serious of misguided hires like Charlie Weis and Les Miles, but Jayhawks brass finally got it right with Lance Leipold.
Non-conference matchups at home against Tennessee Tech and Duke are both winnable, leaving the Jayhawks needing only one Big 12 win to reach the over. I like KU to do one better and perhaps push for a bowl bid.Utah, 8.5: Not necessarily a “low end” pick, but I was a little shocked that the reigning Pac-12 champs have the same O/U as USC and UCLA. Oddly enough, I’ve found much of the media hype surrounding USC this offseason a bit unrealistic and the lack of attention paid to UCLA disappointing, yet 8.5 as perfectly reasonable win totals for each.
*goofball shill voice* VEGAS KNOWS!
Utah, however, feels like an easy double-digit-game winner. The Utes routinely overachieve under Kyle Whittingham, and have reached 10 wins in each of the last two full regular seasons — arguably with rosters not as strong from top-to-bottom as this 2022 bunch.
Much hinges on Week 1 at Florida, I suppose, though the Utes rallied from nonconference losses to BYU and San Diego State a season ago. I don’t see Utah needing such a bounce-back once conference play starts this year.
Onto the highly valued teams I have pegged for underachievement:
Texas, 8.5: Steve Sarkisian garnered the nickname “Seven-Win Sark” for his run of repeated, middling finishes at Washington. His abbreviated tenure at USC is difficult to put too much stock into given the coach’s personal demons at the time. Sark’s comeback deserves respect, but that doesn’t mean whitewashing his track record.
As a head coach, Sarkisian-coached teams underachieve. Last year’s Longhorns were abysmal at season’s end, which doesn’t inspire much confidence. Texas is loaded with talent to be sure, but so were plenty of other underachieving Sark squads. That Texas gets Alabama in Week 2 for a body-blow game, I don’t know it’s a guarantee the Longhorns beat UTSA the following week.Maryland, 5.5: For Rutgers to climb in the Big East, someone needs to slip. Maryland’s the most likely candidate.
The Terps should start 2-0 after facing Buffalo and Charlotte, which puts a premium on Week 3 against SMU. Maryland’s at home, but I’m not convinced it will be the better team against what’s become a consistent program the last few years.
Should SMU catch Maryland, I am calling my shot and projecting the Terrapins at 3-9. I am not a big believer in Mike Locksley, and Maryland has a track record of falling short of expectations — particularly after promising starts, as 2022 will almost assuredly provide in those first two weeks.
So before the tragedy of this week opened a floodgate of truly vile tweets, including (especially?) those connected to sports. Before we had the likes of repellant alt-right blogger Clay Travis calling Steve Kerr — a man with accomplishments far exceeding anything the political trolls attacking him offer and more courage demonstrated in one day of his life than FOX’s resident mush could display in 10 lifetimes — “coward,” the worst tweets of the week belonged to another FOX Sports bozo, Jason McIntyre.
Before getting into this topic, I feel it’s necessary to preface the following: I don’t believe one needs to have played a sport in order to have worthwhile insights. I never played football but I write about it. I also try to study the game and ask questions from those with more experience than me to better present information to the audience.
Jason McIntyre doesn’t do that. He’s a noxious troll whose style of sports talk fosters a harmful environment not intended to inform, but rather showcase himself as a performer. I wrote a screed on this topic a few football seasons ago, and a full year before the most telling incident as to his mindset: “Reporting” an unsubstantiated rumor that was widely debunked, then defending the decision to do so on the grounds that he’ll repeat something “juicy” without verification.
When a media personality makes their identity around trashing athletes, oftentimes baselessly, criticizing their lack of a background actually playing becomes fair game — doubly so if they have the audacity to brag about their skill publicly.
To that end, I give you the most hilariously awful basketball flex of all-time:
I’ll admit that my game isn’t what it once was. I’m on the wrong side of 30 with creaky knees and ankles from years upon years of competition including opposite some damn good opponents. The highlight of my high school basketball days is, at a scouting camp, playing defense on a future Texas teammate of LaMarcus Aldridge that was good enough it earned me some small school offers.
My regular pick-up games are with a lot of players younger and more physically able than me these days. I’m not dominant and, depending on how my 9-month-old daughter slept the night before, sometimes I’m playing for survival more than anything.
So, with that said, I’m supremely confident JMac would get destroyed playing in my pick-up runs. Rather than list who he should recruit to play, I’m going to provide a breakdown as someone who knows just a tad more about the game.
The above clip speaks for itself: The defense is nonexistent, with the player in the lane showing absolutely zero interest in even paying lip service to closing out. The below, which is a half-court set and not a “fast” *stifles laughter* break as the above presumably is, should be even more telling:
I have seen better floor spacing on half-price drink night at college bars. Meanwhile, our star initiates the possession at the top of the key not in triple-threat position, but holding the ball overhead like a peewee leaguer.
The defense, again, is nonexistent: straight-legged stances; an apparent zone, which is inexcusably pathetic in pick-up play; and players are so disinterested that one is spending the majority of the possession messing with the tongue of his shoe.
This has been a rough week, so at least we can have some laughs at the delusions of a jerk.
As the above tirade probably should suggest, JMac will not be on my short list for a hypothetical site. Who would is a much more difficult question to answer.
I’ll start noting that I would stray as far as possible from established, big names at nationally focused outlets. Coverage of college football in particular at the national level feels too monolithic because the prominent outlets seemingly just shuffle around rosters. I was apoplectic last fall when three of the biggest publications in the space all produced near-identical stories on the San Diego State punter within the same week, for example.
Deviating from the echo chamber and introducing some fresh faces or new styles would be my top priority. Another immediate priority is building off pillars of coverage.
Too often sites that promise college sports coverage actually mean coverage of a handful of Power Five football programs while ignoring everything else. It’s insane to me how often I’ve been told that college basketball doesn’t move the needle, yet the sport draws a guaranteed TV rating every year on par with the oversaturated leagues.
College basketball, along with a more robust focus on the whole of college football, are two of my pillars. Women’s basketball is another underserved avenue that’s seen exponential growth in its audience over recent years; the same is true of softball. I expect the ongoing NCAA Tournament to do historic numbers.
Another foundational piece is employing someone who understands the laws impacting college sports on a more expert level. Ditto TV rights and the direction that’s taking athletics. HUGE ditto for gambling coverage, a lot of which I view as ranging from low-quality to downright harmful. A dedicated sports betting journalist is a sorely needed improvement from the current standard of garden-variety reporters or commentators offering up jabroni advice to fulfill the demands of an online book paying for affiliate links.
I realize I’m dancing around the question to some degree, but outlining a blueprint for editorial style is essential. It feels, to me anyway, that new sites focus their identity more on the personalities than the presentation, and thus place too much of a premium on splashy names than on voice. Who produces the content should always be secondary to the content itself.
For that reason, I’m hesitant to name specific names. There are untold numbers of talented people out there just trying to catch a break amid the atmosphere of cronyism and entrenchment who I’d hate to leave out.
That said, a few people in the sports media space whose work I enjoy and believe would be fits for constructing a new outlet with a unique voice include Michael Felder, whose football strategy breakdowns are exactly the kind of informational dives we need to create smarter fans; Thuc Nhi Nguyen of the Los Angeles Times, who writes about basketball and football as expertly as she does swimming, softball or gymnastics; the Flipping The Field crew, who tackle all of FBS football in a manner both knowledgeable and funny2; and the Three-Man Weave team, some of the most passionate folks on college basketball anywhere in media; Greg Mitchell and Russ Steinberg, two guys who have done some of the most unique and interesting college hoops feature-writing in recent years; and so many more.
There’s a largely untapped pool of talent toiling on SB Nation team sites, for example, many of whom in the pre-COVID days were overlooked as the full-time staff adopted a homogenous tone. That one network on its own is indicative of the limitless potential out there so long as someone with the resources to make it happen shows commitment.
Not that that matters with the Pac-12 eliminating divisional standings for determining the Championship Game participants.
“Funny” as it pertains to college football requires a disclaimer: It’s humor about as far from the Reddit echo chamber as possible, which is sorely needed.