Five for Friday: College Basketball's Most Intriguing Storylines in February's Final Week

The last February Saturday features a loaded slate of high-stakes contests that will shape the NCAA Tournament scene.

Somehow, this weekend is the last of February. That means college basketball will take on heightened intensity in the coming weeks, with the race to San Antonio beginning in earnest.

We are just 15 days away from the Ohio Valley Conference awarding the first official ticket to the 2025 Big Dance. With the NCAA Tournament in sight, this edition of Five for Friday examines a quintet of the most intriguing college basketball storylines for the last week of February.

Bubble-Bursting Season

Let’s start this March warm-up edition of Five for Friday with the overall theme of the coming weeks: bursting bubbles.

Originally, one of the five topics for this week examined the path for the Big West Conference to score two bids to the NCAA Tournament, a milestone the league has not reached since the heyday of Jerry Tarkanian’s UNLV Runnin’ Rebels.

And perhaps it could still happen. UC San Diego, which holds a road win over fellow at-large hopeful Utah State, cruised to its eighth straight win and improved to 23-4 with a rout of Cal Poly on Thursday.

But the Tritons’ Big West counterpart and fellow NCAA Tournament hopeful UC Irvine lost at home on Thursday to Cal State Northridge, 84-72. Northridge is a quality opponent that will finish the regular season with 20 wins, but the loss sent the Anteaters plummeting from No. 60 in NET rankings to No. 68. In KenPom, they dropped to No. 73.

Most at-large qualifiers need to be in the top 50 of either metric, if not in the top 40 for mid-majors, to feel at all confident on Selection Sunday.

UC San Diego improved to No. 40 in both metrics with Thursday’s win, so in theory, a UC Irvine championship in the Big West Tournament could still land the conference two Big Dance bids—but it’s unlikely.

While unfortunate for supporters of mid-major basketball, which I most certainly am (and especially amid the uncertainty that power-conference autonomy and NIL has brought to college sports), Northridge’s win over UC Irvine is a prime example of why February hoops are every bit as exciting as March. Every day offers a Tournament game of some kind, evident in the slate for the week.

Saturday’s slate is loaded with March implications. Sunday sees two-time defending national champion UConn in potential must-win territory; Houston plays its second top-10-ranked opponent in three nights on Monday, visiting Texas Tech; New Mexico visits San Diego State on Tuesday; and so on.

If you are not a college basketball junkie and wait until March Madness to tune in, believe The Press Break when I write that Madness is already here.

One-Bid Mountain West?

At last year’s Mountain West Conference Tournament in Las Vegas, a graphic graced the Thomas and Mack Center jumbotron touting the league’s strength compared to some of its power-conference counterparts.

The Mountain West has consistently been not just a great mid-major basketball conference, but an excellent basketball league in general. After sending a record six teams to the 2024 Tournament, however, the MW faces the prospect of only its tournament champion joining the field in 2025.

League-leading New Mexico is ranked No. 39 in KenPom as of Thursday and 41 in NET. The Lobos are off this weekend but will travel to San Diego State on February 25 for one of the biggest games of next week for both teams. SDSU, the MW’s standard-setter for the better part of 15 years, is No. 41 in KenPom and No. 49 in NET.

The Aztecs could be either riding a high or deflated when they welcome New Mexico to Montezuma Mesa: They travel to Utah State on Saturday for a huge game that might make or break the at-large prospects of both teams.

The Aggies are 23-4 with some impressive wins, including knocking off SDSU in the first meeting in December. Utah State also beat Saint Mary’s in non-conference play.

But, with a KenPom ranking of No. 42 and NET of No. 34, Utah State could use some more quality wins to feel safe about its place on Selection Sunday—especially having gone 0-2 against New Mexico in the regular season. The Aggies will also be huge fans of UC San Diego in the Big West Tournament.

Boise State is in the mix among the MW hopefuls, and the Broncos will get Utah State at home next week.

With so many of these teams meeting head-to-head in the coming week, the final push to the MW Tournament in Las Vegas could be a bloodbath that sees multiple bubbles burst.

The MW receiving only one NCAA Tournament bid feels unlikely but isn’t out of the realm of possibility, given selection committee precedent.

SEC One-Seed Monopoly

For as much as I detest the College Football Playoff’s contrived and possibly ESPN-mandated weekly reveal, I actually appreciate the annual sneak peek at the top 16 seeds the NCAA Tournament selection committee provides one month out. Whereas the Football Playoff event feels wholly made to generate a week’s worth of content—evident in the committee contradicting its own nebulous criteria from week to week—the March Madness reveals provide an instructive snapshot of what to expect come Selection Sunday.

This year’s reveal drives home a recurring theme throughout the season with the SEC as the sport’s strongest conference. That’s a point no one can really deny at this juncture. But does the SEC—or any conference, really—deserve three of the four No. 1 seeds?

Florida’s placement among the top four, coming off the Gators’ win over No. 1-ranked Auburn, wasn’t necessarily unwarranted, and not even necessarily surprising. It’s still jarring to see three teams from the same conference all slotted into those coveted spots, especially when another pair from the league loom ready to move onto the top line if any slip up.

Auburn and Alabama predictably occupied two top seeds, as revealed before their historic No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup.

The Crimson Tide followed up their loss to the Tigers with the prototypical let-down loss Wednesday at Missouri, which put a damper on Alabama’s one-seed prospects, but Tennessee is well-positioned to slide into the void.

The winner of Saturday’s contest between the No. 6 Vols and No. 7-ranked Texas A&M could move into the top four if Big 12-leading and No. 5-ranked Houston slips up vs. No. 8 Iowa State on Saturday or at No. 9 Texas Tech on Monday.

This also presents an interesting question that the NCAA Tournament will answer: How much of this year’s SEC dominance is legitimate, and how much is a byproduct of solid teams beating up on one another—thus piling up quality wins—inflating perception? The latter has at times applied to SEC football in recent years, including this past campaign.

SEC coaches and ESPN, excuse me, SEC supporters groused about the exclusions of Alabama and South Carolina from the College Football Playoff field, citing their quality wins in conference play. The Crimson Tide and Gamecocks both proceeded to lose their bowl games against lower-ranked¹ opponents from the Big Ten, while the SEC was shut out of the National Championship Game for a second consecutive year.

College basketball’s non-conference schedule provides a far more telling snapshot to evaluate teams from different leagues: Alabama has a Thanksgiving Week win over Houston, for example, and Auburn romped against Iowa State as part of its Maui Invitational championship.

And, for what it’s worth, the NET rankings through Thursday’s games have the ACC’s Duke Blue Devils and Big 12-leading Houston ranked second and third. Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Arizona are all in the top 10, suggesting the Big 12 could horn in on the SEC’s one-seed collection with the right breaks.

But with Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee in the top five while Alabama still looms at No. 6, a three-SEC team No. 1 line remains a distinct possibility.

UConn, Kansas, and Gonzaga in Different Stages of High Alert

Every Final Four since college basketball’s return from COVID has featured one of either UConn, Kansas, or Gonzaga. There’s a very real possibility the 2025 NCAA Tournament could be played without any of the three, which hasn’t happened since 1989.

The last college basketball season to open with a two-time defending national champion was 2008-09, with the Florida Gators coming off the first back-to-back titles since Duke in 1991 and 1992. With the nucleus behind its repeat run gone, Florida endured some ups and downs, including a late-season, three-game losing skid and early exit from the SEC Tournament, that relegated the Gators to the NIT.

UConn finds itself facing a potentially similar scenario, sitting at 18-8 with some losses that would not qualify as quality—specifically, recent Big East setbacks against Villanova and Seton Hall. The February 15 loss to Seton Hall is especially dire, with the Pirates sitting in the 200s of KenPom ratings.

Dan Hurley’s antics amid UConn’s struggles do not seem to be doing the Huskies any favors, either.

His tirade following the 0-3 showing at November’s Maui Invitational came off as excuse-making, while his declaration that Alex Karaban should deal with frustrations about this season by playing with his national championship rings felt like an arrogant dismissal of fundamental problems plaguing this team.

UConn’s closing stretch pits it against a pair of opponents currently ranked in the top 16 nationally, including this Sunday’s matchup at No. 10 St. John’s. Losses to the Red Storm and in the regular-season finale vs. Marquette, coupled with an exit from the Big East Tournament—say, earlier than the championship round—might be enough to keep UConn out of the Big Dance.

Gonzaga boasts the nation’s second-longest streak of consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances. Now, some of the biggest hacks to ever commit thoughts about basketball to paper have dismissed the Zags’ run as a byproduct of a weak conference. It’s a stupid point that doesn’t deserve the energy required to debunk it; I bring it up only to highlight that the strength of the West Coast Conference could be what saves Gonzaga’s postseason streak.

The Zags finish the regular season with the WCC’s other top three teams: this Saturday’s marquee showdown with Saint Mary’s; Tuesday at Santa Clara; and next Saturday vs. San Francisco.

Saint Mary’s is No. 20 in KenPom and No. 21 in NET, making it a virtual lock for the NCAA Tournament barring a complete collapse in the coming weeks. Santa Clara and San Francisco, meanwhile, are within striking distance of at-large range at No. 57/55 for the Broncos, and No. 63/60 for the Dons.

Should Gonzaga go 2-for-3 to close the regular season and avoid an early exit from the WCC Tournament, the Zags will have no worries on Selection Sunday. Gonzaga is No. 10 in NET, after all, suggesting a 3-0 run to avenge earlier losses at Saint Mary’s and to Santa Clara, while completing a sweep of San Francisco, could propel Gonzaga into the range of a No. 4 seed even before the WCC Tournament.

Conversely, in the unlikely event Gonzaga loses all three and fails to win the WCC Tournament, we might have our first March Madness since 1998 without the Zags.

Kansas, meanwhile, has been in every Big Dance since 1990. And, as recently as Tuesday afternoon, the idea of the Jayhawks’ streak being in jeopardy would have seemed preposterous. Lunardi’s Bracketology published on Tuesday morning had Kansas as a No. 5 seed, suggesting the Jayhawks would need to plummet below a No. 11 seed to be out of the picture—thus, bypassed by at least 24 teams.

But that was before an already-sputtering KU team lost to Big 12 bubble team BYU by a staggering 34 points. The utter annihilation in Provo matched Kansas’ 2021 blowout loss to USC as the third-most lopsided in program history.

KU’s trajectory, losing 3-of-4 in February, is troubling enough. With games against Texas Tech, Houston, and Arizona in the final regular-season stretch, the Jayhawks could head into the Big 12 Tournament with 12 losses.

Final Four Participants in a High-Stakes Showdown

Before George Mason played Notre Dame in the 2008 Tournament, two years removed from the program’s landmark Final Four run, the Patriots’ then-coach Jim Larranaga performed a magic trick in the locker room to fire up his team.

It didn’t work; the Patriots lost 68-50. However, George Mason reappeared in 2011 when the Patriots knocked off Villanova in the opening round, 61-57.

That offseason, Larranaga accepted the head-coaching position at Miami; George Mason’s never been back to the Big Dance. Meanwhile, in 2011, VCU—GMU’s counterpart in what was then the Colonial Athletic Association—replicated the Patriots’ 2006 Final Four run.

VCU filled the role that George Mason hoped to take up as a consistent postseason contender, reaching the NCAA Tournament nine times since its 2011 Final Four appearance. At the same time, the Larranaga-coached Miami Hurricanes have made six Tournament appearances, culminating in their 2023 Final Four run.

With Larranaga retiring a month into this season, a spell that his magic seemingly locked on George Mason has broken. The Patriots are red-hot heading into a showdown with VCU that has massive NCAA Tournament implications for both teams.

Under coach Tony Skinn, star of the 2006 Final Four team, George Mason plays with the kind of tenacious and frustrating defense that has made VCU a March Madness fixture. The Patriots rank fifth nationally in KenPom.com’s adjusted defensive efficiency, essentially denying opponents any opportunity to make 3-pointers.

VCU, meanwhile, scores 37.9 percent of all its points from beyond the arc—39th-most in Division I. Joe Bamisile, UT Arlington transfer Phillip Russell, and Max Shulga have all hit 50-plus triples for the Rams. Saturday’s meeting should be a fun contrast of strengths.

Saturday’s matchup might also be the most mutually consequential matchup of the loaded slate. In a decidedly down year for the Atlantic 10 Conference, the preseason favorite Rams and the pace-setting Patriots are the league’s only two teams with any shot at an at-large Tournament bid.

VCU is undefeated at home, 11-0, while George Mason’s 11-game winning streak is the second-longest in the nation after Towson (winner of 12 straight coming in) lost at Elon on Thursday.

1. Unranked, in the case of Alabama’s 19-13 loss to Michigan at the Outback Bowl. And, no, I will not call it the ReliaQuest Bowl.