Five for Friday: 2026 College Football Playoff Contenders from Each Group of Five Conference

The Group of Five's automatic College Football Playoff berth is a change worth celebrating. Get to know the 2025 season's contenders.

Returning readers of Press Break presumably need no reminder that Your Humble Author is not a fan of the 12-team College Football Playoff…in general. One element of the expanded postseason I do appreciate, however, is inclusion of the top Group of Five conference champion in the field.

How long that automatic bid will last, I don’t know. It seems the sort of thing that perpetually aggrieved SEC commissioner and real chazzer¹ Greg Sankey will try to whine out of existence eventually.

So, in the meantime, let’s enjoy this long-awaited opportunity and check out a candidate from each of the conferences poised to crash the party in the 2025 season.

American Athletic: Navy

Army West Point’s remarkable start to the 2024 season commanded much of the attention among both American Athletic teams and the service academies. Come December, however, it was Navy claiming the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy in one of the most exciting Army-Navy Games of recent memory.

With Heisman Trophy-worthy quarterback Blake Horvath returning behind center, the Midshipmen’s strong finish to last season carries Navy into a promising 2025. Horvath closed last season with a flourish, hopefully playing his way into the Heisman Trophy conversation to kickoff the campaign.

If Horvath’s not in regular Heisman talks ahead of the season, I suspect it won’t be long before he generates buzz. Horvath headlines a veteran roster that also returns All-AAC defensive lineman Landon Robinson and offensive lineman Ben Purvis; last year’s two-most ball-carriers behind the quarterback, Eli Heidenreich and Alex Tecza; and dependable linebackers Jaxson Campbell and Luke Pirris.

The Midshipmen should cruise to a 4-0 start before facing Air Force in the first leg of the Commander’s-in-Chief Trophy series. Navy’s November is brutal, starting with back-to-back road games against North Texas before the Mids’ traditional rivalry date with Notre Dame. A Group of Five Playoff hopeful can weather a loss to a power Playoff team such as Notre Dame, which Boise State proved last season falling to Oregon, but Navy needs to be competitive against last year’s national runner-up.

At the same time, the Midshipmen can’t come out of South Bend too dinged up with USF visiting the next week. I like this Bulls team quite a bit and suspect that game either determines the AAC Championship Game, or is a preview of the Dec. 5 contest.

Conference USA: Western Kentucky

Despite being the weakest of the FBS conferences by every reliable metric in recent years, Conference USA would have had the Group of Five’s College Football Playoff representative in 2023 had the 12-team format debuted then.

Liberty’s undefeated regular season catapulted the Flames into a Fiesta Bowl where they were summarily trounced by Oregon, 45-6, after surrendering 45 consecutive points. It wasn’t exactly the strongest endorsement for the Group of Five receiving an automatic berth in the Playoff. That in turn made Liberty’s preseason designation with the second-most favorable Vegas odds — the best odds, in some places! — to qualify for the inaugural 12-team Playoff a bit disconcerting.

Yet, despite returning star quarterback Kaiden Salter, Liberty stumbled through an 8-3 regular season with an eked-out overtime win over perennially dreadful UMass shortly after losing to lowly Kennesaw State.

Three teams finished ahead of the Flames in Conference USA: Sam Houston, which engineered one of the best single-season turnarounds in FBS history, going from 0-2 to 10-3; Jacksonville State, which completed Rich Rodriguez’s redemptive arc with a league title; and stalwart Western Kentucky.

Of the three, WKU is the only program not replacing its head coach. Rodriguez returned to West Virginia, while K.C. Keeler went back to the East Coast² to take over at Temple. The changes starting at the top and trickling down through the rosters at Jacksonville State and Sam Houston helped propel Liberty back to the top of preseason Conference USA odds and assorted predictions. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky feels a bit overlooked.

The Hilltoppers have historically been at their best with a potent passing offense, and the addition of Abilene Christian transfer quarterback Maverick McIvor should kick-start WKU to that end. Much like Austin Reed, who set records transferring in from Div. II West Florida, the FCS import McIvor proved himself a sensational talent before coming to Bowling Green.

McIvor led ACU to its first-ever FCS Playoffs appearance and was a finalist for the Walter Payton Award with more than 3,800 yards passing and 30 touchdowns. He’ll have no shortage of promising targets, including 2023 CUSA All-Freshman honoree K.D. Hutchinson, who caught three touchdowns as a sophomore in 2024. Incoming transfer Matthew Henry was a standout for Div. II Livingstone,

All told, I like WKU to win Conference USA but believe the ‘Toppers to be the least likely of the Group of Five champs to contend for the Playoff berth. If they are in the hunt come November, though, a paycheck game with LSU could be a prime opportunity for WKU to really stake its case — and to welcome back one of the greatest moments from a simpler time in college football.

Mid-American: Toledo

When Liberty went on its above-mentioned run to the Fiesta Bowl in 2023, Toledo entered Championship Week as the most likely contender for the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six berth. The Rockets instead lost to Miami University in the MAC Championship Game, 23-14. It was one of three losses in Toledo’s program record-matching 11-win campaign, with each of the three setbacks totaling just 11 points.

Both of the Rockets’ 11-win seasons have come under Jason Candle, part of his 73 victories since taking over for Matt Campbell in 2016. Candle’s next win will make him the program’s all-time record-holder, passing Gary Pinkel. If the Rockets can score that milestone win in Week 1, it would be a helluva feat — and provide Toledo a launching pad toward Playoff contention, as UT visits Kentucky.

Another matchup with a Kentucky team awaits in the Rockets’ Week 2 home opener as mentioned above. If the Group of 5 berth comes down to the champion of Conference USA and the MAC, as it did two years ago, WKU’s visit to the Glass Bowl will be huge.

Of course, that hinges on Toledo’s performance in the MAC. The Rockets appear likely to be the head of the class, particularly on defense. While the Mid-American built its reputation on explosive offenses through the 2000s and 2010s — hashtag MACtion and what-not — the league has increasingly been defined by stout defense.

To wit, the last two champions — Miami in 2023 and Ohio last season — allowed just 15.9 and 18.1 points per game. Toledo’s been near the top of the MAC in defense, but not at the top. That could change in 2025 with the Rockets returning safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (61 tackles, four pass break-ups, a forced fumble and an interception in 2024), interior lineman Martez Poynter (30 tackles, seven for loss, 3.5 sacks) and cornerback Avery Smith (14 pass break-ups, two interceptions).

Mountain West: Boise State

Ashton Jeanty’s run at Barry Sanders’ historic 1988 season headlined Boise State’s 20-year pursuit of a place at the championship table. Jeanty is off to the NFL, but the Broncos are poised to be at the forefront of non-AQ football, as they have been consistently for two decades-plus.

Certainly Boise State has a ton of lost production for which it must account, but figures key in helping Jeanty get to New York return for the Broncos’ 2025 campaign. Most notably, the offensive line remains among the best fronts in the nation, with All-American left tackle Kage Casey anchoring.

The offensive line should ensure Boise State’s offense remains productive without Jeanty. Matt Lauter is among the best pass-catching tight ends in college football, coming off of a seven-touchdown 2024. The Broncos also return receiver Latrell Caples, who hauled in five scores and nearly 500 yards.

Quarterback Maddux Madsen quietly delivered solid numbers to support Jeanty’s pursuit of the Heisman, throwing for 23 touchdowns against only six interceptions and establishing himself as a capable rushing threat. Then again, maybe Madsen’s production wasn’t that quiet; he is the Mountain West’s Preseason Offensive Player of the Year.

Boise State also returns a leading contender to win Defensive Player of the Year in linebacker Marco Notarainni, a 1st Team All-MW selection last year with 60 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks.

BSU should be the cream of the crop in the Mountain West, but its return to the Playoff also hinges on a tough non-conference schedule. The Broncos open at USF then travel to Notre Dame a month later; those games provide interesting data points if the Group of Five Playoff berth comes down to Boise State and Navy.

Sun Belt: James Madison

Over the course of the 2000s and into the 2010s, the Sun Belt grew from the least of the Div. I-A/FBS conferences to a model league in the disorienting landscape of 2020s college football. Along with its successful crafting of a vast yet still regionally logical footprint, the Sun Belt fostered the growth of quality programs and began routinely boasting Top 25 finishers in the last decade.

Despite the Sun Belt’s dramatic improvements, it closed out the four-team College Football Playoff era as the sole conference to never send a representative to a New Year’s Six Bowl. A media campaign galvanized behind James Madison’s candidacy in 2023, as the Dukes roared to a 10-0 start in just their second FBS campaign but were ineligible for Playoff rankings as a result of their transition.

While an overtime loss to Appalachian State silenced that improbably Playoff push, the 2023 season did serve to establish James Madison as an immediate force in the Sun Belt — and it also exposed the program to the harsh realities successful programs endure at this level.

Career vagabond Curt Cignetti leaving James Madison for Indiana and taking a host of key contributors with him to Bloomington left the Dukes in something of a rebuild last season.

Still, coach Bob Chesney oversaw a nine-win campaign that included a historic win over North Carolina.

The former Holy Cross coach had JMU in the Sun Belt championship hunt deep in November, with only a loss at Appalachian State and overtime setback to eventual SBC champion Marshall denying the Dukes a spot in the title game.

James Madison capped Chesney’s first season at the helm with a Boca Raton Bowl win over my favorite to win this year’s Conference USA, Western Kentucky.

JMU heads into 2025 with a talented roster that includes running back George Pettaway, who flirted with 1,000 yards rushing in 2024. Wide receiver Nick DeGennaro was a standout at the Dukes’ former FCS rival Richmond with nearly 1,300 yards the last two years and 15 touchdowns. The offensive line, a consistent hallmark for Dukes teams, should also be the best in the Sun Belt.

However, defense is where JMU is most likely to make its mark. Xavier Holmes is another transfer from a former JMU Coastal Athletic Association counterpart (Maine) and an outstanding counterpart on the Dukes defensive line to All-Sun Belt selection Immanuel Bush. Defensive backs DJ Barksdale and Jacob Thomas both had multiple interceptions in 2024, and linebacker Trent Hedrick is coming off of a three-sack campaign.

An early-season Friday night visit to Louisville looms large for the Dukes to make an impression. They also draw fellow SBC title contenders Texas State and Marshall on the road on the back-half of the schedule in matchups that could trip up James Madison’s Sun Belt title prospects — and, by extension, a Playoff bid.

1. “You know what a chazzer is? It's a Yiddish word for ‘pig.’ See, the guy, he wants more than what he needs. He don't fly straight no more.”

2. Keeler coached Delaware to the Div. I-AA national championship in 2003 and the FCS National Championship Game in 2007 and 2010.