Bubble Babble for Feb. 12: The NCAA Tournament Is Cougar Country

When Oregon State earned an at-large bid into the 2016 NCAA Tournament, it ended the Beavers’ 26-year March Madness drought — and left Washington State with the Pac-12’s longest streak of consecutive seasons missing the Big Dance.

The dry spell, dating back to 2008 when a Tony Bennett-coached Cougars team advanced to the Sweet 16, is hardly guaranteed to end with a month still remaining in the 2023-24 campaign.

However, Washington State’s won 8-of-9 — a stretch that includes a defeat of Arizona — and rebounded from a loss to Cal with five straight. The Cougars are among the hottest teams in the country, and their success blends quantity with quality.

A 62-56 road win at Oregon on Saturday marked Washington State’s fourth victory in the current, five-game streak against an opponent with a NET ranking of No. 69 or better, and a KenPom overall mark of No. 59 or better:

• Jan. 24: 79-57 vs. 47/44 Utah

• Jan. 27: 78-69 39/35 Colorado

• Feb. 3: 90-87(OT) at 69/58 Washington

• Feb. 10: 62-56 at 61/59 Oregon

And while the fifth win in that run may not be a resume victory as far as metrics go, Oregon State’s been considerably stronger at Gill Coliseum than away from it, making a visit there a potentially bubble-bursting loss.

Surviving that pitfall, particularly after losing its last such trap at Cal, was exactly the kind of gut-check a Tournament-worthy team passes.

Washington State was only just creeping its way onto the bracketologists’ radars in the past week or so, hence the Cougars appearing as a “Last Four In” among Joe Lunardi’s Feb. 12 projections . My perspective more closely aligns with Jerry Palm, who has Washington State comfortably in as a No. 7 seed.

Metrics and eye-test strength of resume both suggest Washington State should be easily in the field, and perhaps threatening for favorable seeding.

Along with the aforementioned Pac-12 wins they’ve accrued, the Cougars also beat a Boise State team in the hunt for the championship of the stacked Mountain West.

It’s also not the kind of win that tips a bubble team on the right side of the cut-line, but beating an Eastern Washington bunch that has a two-game lead in the Big Sky Conference isn’t without merit, either.

Washington State coach Kyle Smith may not be a slam dunk for Pac-12 Coach of the Year — Cal was in absolute dire straits just a year ago, and has been competitive in Mark Madsen’s first year as the Golden Bears head coach.

As important as a vastly improved record, Madsen’s tenure restored excitement at Cal at a time when the school’s athletic department desperately needed some positive vibes.

However, Smith would be my choice for the aware as of Feb. 11. Depending how the next weeks unfold, Kyle Smith could be an intriguing candidate for National Coach of the Year recognition.

Gone from a Washington State team that was making a push for the NCAA Tournament last year around this time are Mouhamed Gueye, TJ Bamba, Justin Powell and — arguably the biggest gut-punch given his in-conference transfer to USC — DJ Rodman.

A revamped Cougars lineup has been better than last season’s defensively, ranking 21st in 2-point field-goal percentage allowed and 80th against the 3-pointer. Washington State’s lineup is one of the rangiest in college basketball, and takes advantage with a top-30 shot-blocking rate.

Among the most proficient for WSU in this regard is Isaac Jones, who has also been the marquee addition from last year. Were it not for Arizona’s Caleb Love, Jones would have an awfully strong argument as the Pac-12’s best newcomer.

He’s averaging 15.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, and shoots at a nearly 58 percent clip. The interior presence of the big man Jones with the perimeter contributions of freshman Myles Rice and hybrid wing Jaylen Wells fuels an offense that’s reminiscent of the 2008 Cougars with Aron Baynes inside and Kyle Weaver and Taylor Rochestie outside.

Wells may be the most interesting contributor to a current NCAA Tournament-contending roster at the moment. He transferred to Washington State from Div. II Sonoma State, and it’s rather remarkable he flew under the radar as he did.

Wells scored 22.4 points per game and averaged almost nine rebounds for Sonoma State, all while shooting 44 percent from 3-point range.

He’s making almost 45 percent for Washington State this season after going a combined 10-of-12 on the Oregon road trip. A 6-foot-8 wing who shoots the 3-pointer that effectively and who can create fast-break opportunities on defense ending up at the Div. II level is a reminder that there’s no shortage of talent anywhere in the game at present.

Washington State’s closing stretch begins Feb. 15 with the Bay Area schools at home before a trip to Arizona, then a closing stretch at the Palouse vs. badly sputtering USC, suddenly red-hot UCLA and then rival Washington. KenPom projections forecast a 6-1 finish, which sends the Cougars to Las Vegas for the Pac-12 Tournament at 25-6.

Such a record would presumably having Washington State playing with house money in Vegas.