Bubble Babble for Feb. 10: How Likely Is A Six-Bid Mountain West?

On Jan. 28, I was prepared to write off Nevada’s chances of landing an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Good thing Selection Sunday isn’t the first week of February.

In my defense, the Wolf Pack just dropped their fourth decision in five games on that Sunday night, and did so in especially disastrous fashion, 89-55 to New Mexico in The Pit.

The late, great Eric The Actor’s fear that werewolves are real and living in Albuquerque was vindicated, if only for that one night, based on how viciously New Mexico mauled Nevada.

Now, KenPom overall rankings are not a direct reflection of the NCAA Tournament selection committee’s thought process, but they provide some guideline. Typically, a bubble team wants to be on the right side of No. 45 to feel confident on Selection Sunday; and perhaps more so sub-No. 40 if they’re from a league deemed mid-major.

Nevada peaked at No. 35 in KenPom overall ratings, but three straight losses at home to Boise State, then on the road at San Diego State and Wyoming before the bludgeoning at New Mexico sent the Wolf Pack tumbling to No. 59.

Going into February, Nevada felt safe to write off as an at-large hopeful. In less than one week, the Pack completely flipped the script.

A 77-63 win Tuesday at Utah State, where the Aggies had been dominant all season, followed with Friday’s improbable comeback to beat San Diego State in overtime catapulted Nevada back to No. 45.

A rematch against New Mexico in Reno looms on Tuesday.

How deep Nevada could go in the NCAA Tournament should it play its way into the field, I don’t know. Coach Steve Alford doesn’t have the strongest March Madness track record.

Outside of his tenure at UCLA, Alford had exactly one Sweet 16 appearance — and it came at a time when America was fearful of the Y2K Problem and when Missouri State still had Southwest in its name.

Perhaps the most notorious of Alford-coached teams’ March underachievement is also what critics may cite when arguing against upwards of six Tournament bids for the Mountain West: As a No. 3 in 2013, New Mexico boasted the best seeding of the five MWC teams in the field.

None advanced beyond the first weekend, with the Lobos bowing out in their opening-round matchup with 14th-seeded Harvard.

Earnestly referencing a tournament from 11 years ago¹ is asinine to anyone thinking logically, but who said anything about logic? This is the March Madness bubble we’re talking about here!

And, of course, the Mountain West has sent teams to the Sweet 16 in the decade since — including Nevada, albeit under Eric Musselman. Nevertheless, I am prepared for past March disappointment to be used against the MW’s case.

San Diego State reaching last season’s National Championship Game should work in the conference’s favor this year. Aztecs coach Brian Dutcher touted the Mountain West when asked about its detractors at last year’s Final Four:

“This conference is hard. It's toughened us up to go to places we have to play, in Laramie and Logan and Albuquerque and Vegas, go down the list. Colorado State [to] play at altitude. Tough travel league. Nothing easy to get to.”

Difficult travel and the hostile home-court environments most of the conference’s top-tier teams boast have led to tumult this season. San Diego State’s loss at Nevada continues a trend in which a team appears poised to move to the front of the pack, only to fall on the road.

Potential front-runners aren’t dropping conference games because they’re frauds or any other such nonsense. Reality is that the Mountain West, particularly on top, is really damn good.

While I may not know how deep Nevada can go in the Tournament, I do know that Kenan Blackshear is exactly the kind of explosive scoring guard who can go on a memorable hot streak should the Wolf Pack get in.

And the MW boasts other contending teams with similar playmakers — New Mexico has multiple between Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn and Donovan Dent.

Colorado State’s Isaiah Stevens is among the nation’s most exciting guards and could be the type who puts his team on his back on a second-weekend run.

San Diego State’s Reese Waters, a streaky scorer, might catch fire at the right time; defenses converging on Jaedon LeDee inside may provide him the opening to do so.

And speaking of LeDee, the game is increasingly predicated on perimeter performance. However, Armando Bacot’s 2022 performance for North Carolina shows a team can still hitch its wagon primarily to a hard-working big man and see results, and both LeDee and Utah State’s Great Osobor have that kind of potential.

As it stands going into Saturday, the Mountain West boasts five teams below or exactly at that aforementioned KenPom No. 45 line: New Mexico at 19, San Diego State at 20, Colorado State at 30, Utah State at 44 and Nevada working its way back to No. 45.

Boise State sits at No. 51, precarious position but with a variety of strong wins — San Francisco, North Texas and Saint Mary’s out-of-conference — and a closing stretch of New Mexico, Nevada and San Diego State to make a strong final argument.

I’m not anticipating all six getting into the Tournament. But, as Nevada’s resurgence suggests, none of the six can be written off until Selection Sunday, either.

1. Wait…that Tournament was 11 years ago?