My STATS Perform FCS Top 25 Preseason Ballot

Two-time defending national champion South Dakota State remains the team to beat, while the Jackrabbits MVFC rival North Dakota State looks to start a new dynasty.

The first week of August marks the home stretch to the beginning of another football season. With kickoff in sight — there are consequential games in the Football Championship Subdivision fewer than three weeks from writing of this newsletter! — the release of the STATS Perform FCS Top 25 Poll sets the scene for the 2024 campaign.

It’s my privilege to once again be a voter in the preeminent FCS Top 25. In the interest of transparency, below is my contribution to the preseason poll. The following is a preamble I give every year, so apologies to repeat readers of The Press Break for this redundancy: My philosophy on a preseason poll is that it’s an inexact science combining the previous year’s success with expectations for the season to come.

A team’s success in the season prior has to be taken into consideration, especially if that team returns a variety of key contributors. However, some teams that may have disappointed the year prior or that bring in a variety of potentially high-impact transfers should not be ignored.

I describe my preseason voting formula as about 75 percent where I anticipate teams finishing in the year to come, and 25 percent a reflection of the previous season. With the majority being predictive, there are bound to be misfires as the campaign progresses — and there are some reaches relative to how they fared previously.

1. South Dakota State
   The two-time defending national champion Jackrabbits head into the 2024 season winners in 29 straight dating back to Week 1 of the 2022 season. With 2023 Walter Payton Award-winning quarterback Mark Gronowski, NFL-caliber offensive lineman Gus Miller anchoring up front and an absolutely loaded defense that returns a corps of playmakers responsible for last season’s scant 9.3-point per game yield, South Dakota State is an easy pick at No. 1.
   

2. North Dakota State

   Winning every national championship but one from 2011 through 2019 may have fostered an unrealistic baseline for Bison football. That North Dakota State won only one championship in the post-COVID era is presented as a letdown in some circles. Likewise, losing seven games in the past two seasons — including four straight to South Dakota State — fuels what feels like a kind of malaise emanating from Fargo.

   
   Losing Matt Entz to a position-coaching post (linebackers at USC) after predecessors Craig Bohl and Chris Klieman exited North Dakota State for desirable FBS head-coaching posts functions as a fitting metaphor for NDSU’s relative decline. Going back to the roots of the dynasty, hiring former Bohl assistant Tim Polasek, is a smart move toward reestablishing the Bison’s identity as the nation’s foremost physical team.
   
   Imposing lines on both sides of the ball, featuring Grey Zabel — a potential NFL draft pick on offense — and Dylan Hendricks on defense will certainly do their part.
   
   NDSU’s pursuit of recent glory begins immediately, with the Bison looking to reestablish their dominance of power-conference FBS opponents. They kick off 2024 against Colorado, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bison hasten the implosion of the Prime experiment in Boulder.

3. Villanova
   Mark Ferrante took on the difficult task of replacing a true legend, following longtime Villanova head coach and College Football Hall of Famer Andy Talley. Ferrante’s maintained the standard Talley established, with the Wildcats claiming at least a share of the CAA championship in two of the last three seasons with a pair of national quarterfinals runs.
   
   In 2024, Ferrante may have his team best-equipped to match the pinnacle of Talley’s career, which was the 2009 national championship campaign. Quarterback Connor Watkins was a breakout star in his second year as Villanova’s starter, throwing to a rotation of receivers that includes Jaylan Sanchez. Defensively, Villanova features what may be the nation’s best linebacker corps with Brendan Bell and Shane Hartzell.

4. Montana
   Montana is arguably the best FCS program with the least to show for its continued excellence in terms of hardware. Griz teams have been title contenders almost every year for the last 30, evident in nine National Championship Game appearances since 1995. With last year’s 23-3 loss to South Dakota State, however, Montana fell to 2-7 in those contests, and 1-7 since beating Marshall in a 1995 title tilt that ranks among the best in I-AA/FCS history.
   

   The Griz have been great, but never quite ascended to the level of the Youngstown States of the ‘90s, Appalachian States of the 2000s, North Dakota States of the 2010s or South Dakota State in the present day. Can the 2024 Griz change that?
   
   Eli Gillman, who rushed for a hair less than 1,000 yards on just 140 carries in 2023, is poised for a Walter Payton Award-contending season on offense. Trevin Gradney, honored in the offseason with Montana’s illustrious No. 37, is a Buck Buchanan Award contender for the defense.

5. Montana State
   I dare say The Brawl of the Wild is the most hostile rivalry in the entire FCS. That Montana and Montana State have played since 1897 certainly gave this series plenty of time to foster animosity. Add that both are national championship contenders, and the Brawl stands out as especially worthy of attention from anyone who loves college football.
   

   The 2024 edition should continue the recent trend of determining Big Sky supremacy and an inside track on the National Championship Game. Montana State welcomes back powerhouse ball-carrying quarterback Tommy Mellott to operate behind what might be the Big Sky’s best offensive line. On defense, Brody Grebe is the preseason Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year and a likely contender for the Buck Buchanan Award.

6. Chattanooga
   The first glaring example that my preseason poll weighs expectations more heavily than past results is Chattanooga appearing ahead of Southern Conference rival Furman. The Paladins took two from the Mocs last season, including a matchup in the FCS Playoffs. However, Chattanooga heads into 2024 with one of the most experienced — and talented — offenses in the FCS.

   
   UCLA transfer quarterback Chase Artopoeus settled in his first year with the Mocs and is back with an impressive rotation of pass-catchers around him. Wide receivers Sam Phillips and Javin Whatley, who combined for more than 1,600 yards and scored 13 touchdowns; and tight end Jay Gibson. Anchoring the defense is Marlon Taylor, the preseason SoCon Defensive Player of the Year and a 6-foot-2, 320-pound presence on the interior with a possible NFL future.

7. South Dakota
   The 2023 campaign was perhaps program-defining for South Dakota. Reaching 10 wins — including a defeat of North Dakota State on the road — sets expectations high for the Coyotes in 2024. USD replaces MVFC Defensive Player of the Year Brock Mogensen, now with the Dallas Cowboys, but returners Nick Gaes, Denis Shorter and Blake Holden were among the most productive Coyotes on defense.
   
   South Dakota’s offense complemented its imposing defense with a productive run-game rotation. Travis Theis and Charles Pierre Jr. combined for more than 1,300 yards and 11 touchdowns. Iowa State transfer quarterback Aidan Bouman was a dependable passer to give the Coyotes some variety.

8. Idaho
   Jason Eck has done a masterful job in his two seasons as Idaho head coach, leading the Vandals to consecutive Playoffs. A loss at home to UAlbany in the quarterfinals denied Idaho its best postseason run since reaching the semifinal in 1993, but a solid corps responsible for last year’s success is back.
   
   The defense is especially experienced with linemen Dallas Afalava and Keyshawn James-Newby, and backs Tommy McCormick and Kyrin Beachem. Quarterback Gevani McCoy landed at Oregon State and wide receiver Hayden Hatten is jockeying for a roster spot with the Seattle Seahawks, so the Vandals offense undergoes some change. However, tight end Jake Cox and wide receiver Jordan Dwyer showed potential as standout pass-catchers and Jack Layne put up impressive numbers in back-up quarterback duty.

9. Richmond
   Richmond is in one of the more interesting spots of any FCS program. So much of the movement around the subdivision in recent years has centered around making the jump to FBS in pursuit of football glory (and money) — including the Spiders’ CAA counterparts, James Madison and Delaware.
   
   Richmond, meanwhile, makes the move to the Patriot League in 2025. The CAA is historically a much stronger football conference — one in which the Spiders have been near the top of routinely, including winning a split of the 2023 championship.

   
   Featuring an outstanding front seven, even with the departures of Tristan Wheeler (graduated) and Marlem Louis (transferred to San Diego State), the Spiders should put plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Speaking of quarterbacks, Kyle Wickersham came along nicely after returning from midseason injury, and his top target Nick DeGennaro, was All-CAA in 2023.

10. Southern Illinois
    The nation’s fourth-best defense in terms of points allowed (16.2 points per game) reloads for 2024 with key contributors Ubayd Steed, Desman Hearns and Iverson Brown returning to the secondary; Colin Bohanek and Ben Bogle at linebacker; and Peyton Reeves up front.

    
    However, the most intriguing facet of Southern Illinois’ roster is the variety of transfers the Salukis welcome. The offensive line in particular is heavy on FBS experience, while running back Eddie Robinson helped power Duquesne’s run to the 2023 Playoffs.

11. UC Davis
    A tenure at UC Davis in which he built the program up as a credible Div. I contender provided Dan Hawkins a deserved final entry on his lengthy head-coaching resume. Hawkins, whose tenure at Boise State set the Broncos up to become a national brand, had a disastrous stint at Colorado before resurfacing with UC Davis.
    
    He turns the reins over Tim Plough, whose scheme helped a previously anemic Cal offense into one of the most prolific attacks in last year’s Pac-12. The UC Davis alum inherits a roster that should thrive under his direction, starting with running back and preseason Big Sky Offensive MVP Lan Larison. Larison could be the FCS counter to Cal’s Jaydn Ott, a dark-horse Heisman contender for the Golden Bears.

12. Furman
    Furman was flirting with home-field advantage all the way to Frisco last season before losing maybe the most confounding decision of the entire 2023 FCS, 19-13 to a woeful Wofford team. It’s fair to suggest the loss cost the Paladins their first berth in the National Championship Game since 2001.
    
    Furman replaces some key contributors from that group, including quarterback Tyler Huff, running back Dominic Roberto and sensational linebacker Braden Gilby. However, Evan DiMaggio and Luke Clark return after combining for 11 sacks and 18.5 tackles for loss.

    
    Nose guard Xavier Stephens sets the tone on the interior for what should be one of the stingiest defenses in the country.

13. Elon
    My first considerable deviation from the overall preseason poll, I am sky-high on this Elon team’s potential. What’s more, there are results to back up that confidence: The Phoenix beat a then-No. 5-ranked Delaware on the road as part of a late-season push for the CAA championship.
    
    Elon fell short of staking a claim to its first league title in the Coastal, but Tony Trisciani’s squad should be in the hunt this year. The defense is stacked, starting with a secondary that features two All-Americans at safety: returning Caleb Curtain, and North Carolina Central transfer Khalil Baker. Linebackers Marco Patierno and Brandon Tyson were breakout performers as freshmen, and Cazeem Moore is a dependable pass-rush option off the edge.
    
    Should quarterback Matthew Downing continue on his late-season trajectory, Elon could emerge as the team to watch in the CAA.

14. Western Carolina

    Once arguably the epicenter of FCS football, thanks to dynasties at Appalachian State and Georgia Southern, the SoCon has run fourth in the wake of the MVFC, Big Sky and CAA in the decade since ASU and GSU transitioned to FBS. Last year saw the SoCon begin returning to past form with three teams in the Playoffs, and four ranked in the end-of-season Top 25 — including Western Carolina at No. 23.
    
    The Catamounts return for 2024 with the make-up of a SoCon contender and potential dark horse in the Playoffs, starting on offense. Cole Gonzales is the preseason SoCon Offensive Player of the Year, and he teams with versatile speed-demon receiver AJ Colombo and running back Branson Adams to give WCU a dangerous, sideline-to-sideline attack.
    
    A Week 3 matchup between the Catamounts and Elon stands out as one of the best non-conference dates on the entire FCS calendar, offering potential playoff implications in the late summer.

15. Central Arkansas
    Four points separated Central Arkansas from winning the inaugural United Athletic Conference championship and its automatic bid to the FCS Playoffs. The 25-23 and 14-12 setbacks against Tarleton and Austin Peay loom large for the Bears heading into 2024, as they build around a nucleus of leaders from the 2023 squad.
    
    UCA features two of the best skill-position players in the UAC, returning 1st Team All-Conference running back ShunDerrick Powell in the backfield alongside quarterback Will McElvain. McElvain passed for 24 touchdowns, 2,477 yards and threw only five interceptions in 2023.
    
    The Bears rebounded from a disappointing 2022 last season thanks to huge defensive improvements. David Walker was central to UCA trimming more than a touchdown off of its per-game yield, and coming off an 8.5-sack season, he’s a prime candidate to vie for the 2024 Buck Buchanan Award.

16. Sacramento State
    Sacramento State weathered the departure of coach Troy Taylor for Stanford nicely, winning at least eight games and reaching the FCS Playoffs for the fourth consecutive seasons. The Hornets aim to make it five straight behind their typically balanced offense, featuring dual-threat quarterback Kiaden Bennett; running back Elijah Tau-Tolliver; and Jared Gipson, one of the highest-potential wide receivers in the FCS.

    
    The biggest question for Sacramento State is how effectively will it be able to replce a variety of its top defensive contributors. Safety Gavin Davis-Smith is the only returner who accrued 30-plus tackles a season ago.

17. William & Mary
    After their CAA championship in 2022, and with a bevy of standouts returning including All-Americans John Pius and Nate Lynn, the Tribe went into 2023 with the look of national championship contenders. William & Mary instead finished 6-5 and out of the Playoffs.
    
    Pius and Lynn are both gone to Wisconsin and the Detroit Lions, but there’s plenty more to think W&M can return to its 2022 level. The Tribe secondary is teeming with playmakers, including Marcus Barnes and Jalen Jones. The offense is among the most experienced in the nation, including multidimensional Bronson Yoder and his tag-team partner at running back, Malachi Imoh. If quarterback Darius Wilson becomes a more dangerous downfield threat, William & Mary could emerge as the team to beat in the CAA.

18. Illinois State
    Eight points separated Illinois State from going 10-1 in the regular season a season ago. The Redbirds dropped decisions of 14-13 out-of-conference to Eastern Illinois; 41-38 at Youngstown State in MVFC; 24-21 the next week vs. Northern Iowa, and 22-21 to close the campaign at North Dakota, both in conference.

    It should also be noted that Illinois State beat Missouri State, 36-35, giving the Redbirds an incredible three games decided by just one point. The crunch-time experience could serve Illinois State well as a potential breakthrough team into the top tier of the stacked MVFC.
    
    The return of All-America caliber linebacker Amir Abdullah and big, physical defensive back Mark Cannon Jr. sets up the Illinois State defense nicely to make a push in the league.

19. New Hampshire
    So here’s one that, compared to the final poll, I really went out on a limb: I am the sole voter to have included New Hampshire on my ballot. Certainly losing do-everything All-American running back Dylan Laube (now with the Las Vegas Raiders) and Walter Payton Award finalist quarterback Max Brosmer (transferred to Minnesota) leaves coach Rick Santos with some questions on offense. Adding transfer Seth Morgan, who shined filling in for momentary Chicago Bears sensation Tyson Bagent at Div. II Shepherd, should address the loss of Brosmer.
    

    While replacing Laube’s contributions in the run and receiving game as well as special teams makes for a tall task, UNH can lean on a talented defense in the interim. Josiah Silver and Dylan Ruiz have both shown All-American ability at defensive end.

20. UAlbany
    Twice in recent years under coach Greg Gattuso, UAlbany has reached unprecedented milestones. The first time came in 2019 when the Great Danes won nine games, including the first playoff victory in program history. That elevated expectations at UAlbany, but perhaps no other program was more profoundly impacted by the COVID pause as evidenced in a dramatic backslide the next two seasons.
    
    Last year’s unprecedented 11 wins and run to the FCS semifinals proved that 2019 was not a fluke. However, avoiding another downturn after several key departures is a potential defining moment for Gattuso.
    
    Cornerback Aamir Hall (Michigan), quarterback Reese Poffenbarger (Miami) and defensive end Anton Juncaj (Arkansas) all landed at Power Four programs. That’s a lot of talent to replace. However, this UAlbany lineup reminds me a lot of the 2019 version — most notably, the offensive line.

21. Incarnate Word
    Perhaps the most unlikely program to grow into a perennial threat to make the Playoffs — including in 2022 coming within a field goal of beating North Dakota State in Fargo to reach the National Championship Game — the Cardinals look to continue defying expectations in 2024.
    
    Now, when I write “defying expectations,” I should note that UIW is No. 14 in the FCS Top 25; my ballot at No. 21 is considerably lower than the Cardinals’ actual ranking. However, The Word is coming off missing the FCS Playoffs despite being overwhelming favorites to win the Southland in 2023. UIW has also endured considerable turnover with Eric Morris and GJ Kinne both head coaches at FBS program in the Lone Star State (Morris at North Texas, Kinne at Texas State). Clint Killough heads into his second season at the helm, however, and will turn the offense over to a returning starter in quarterback in Zach Calzada.
    
    The former Texas A&M and Auburn signal-caller took the majority of snaps, while local product Richard Torres put up solid numbers in spot duty as a freshman. The defining trait of Killough’s first UIW team compared to his predecessors, however, was that the offense was not quite as explosive — but the defense was stingy, allowing fewer than 20 points per game. It will be interesting to see if that’s a trend with playmakers like Ronald Wilson (four interceptions), Chase Carter (three sacks) and Tylan Foster (84 tackles) all back.

22. Lafayette
    Holy Cross may have commanded the spotlight for much of former Crusaders coach Bob Chesney’s tenure, but his tenure before taking the James Madison job ended with Lafayette on top of the Patriot League.
    
    The Leopards won the Patriot and the automatic playoff berth thanks in part of beating Holy Cross in one of the best games of the 2023 season. Running back Jamar Curtis’ 229-yard, two-touchdown performance marked a coming-out party for the 2024 Walter Payton Award contender.
    
    Lafayette can make noise nationally in 2024, opening on the road with FBS opponent Buffalo and a Monmouth team that has dark-horse playoff potential out of the CAA.

23. Youngstown State
    A strong back-half to the season, starting with a thrilling win over Illinois State, set Youngstown State on course to win 5-of-6 before falling to Villanova in the FCS Playoffs. The Penguins get a chance to avenge their postseason defeat right out of the gate, opening 2024 at Villanova on Aug. 29.
    
    The marquee matchup of Week 1 could potentially launch Youngstown State into a big year. The Penguins welcome back sensational running back Tyshon King, coming off a 1,011-yard, nine-touchdown 2023, and wide receiver Max Tomcazak gets an opportunity to show his stuff as the No. 1 target with the program’s all-time leader in career touchdown receptions, Bryce Oliver, looking to make an NFL roster.

24. North Dakota
    A testament to the depth of the MVFC, North Dakota finished third in the conference a season ago and yet I have the Fighting Hawks as the seventh team ranked here.
    
    UND scored perhaps its most impressive FCS win in program history last October when it routed in-state rival North Dakota State.

    The Fighting Hawks went 3-3 thereafter, including a 27-0 face-plant the next week at Northern Iowa, and they needed overtime to outlast an Indiana State team near the cellar of the MVFC and eeked out a 22-21 win in the regular-season finale vs. Illinois State in what was ostensibly a playoff play-in.
    
    Still, North Dakota has shown its potential to compete with the top of the MVFC. Sustaining it from week-to-week is the next step for the Fighting Hawks.

25. Weber State

    Finishing the 2023 season on a three-game winning streak, including wins over surprising Idaho State and Big Sky title contender Idaho, gave Weber State some hope of an at-large playoff bid. Not a bad turnaround for what seemed like a lost campaign after the Wildcats dropped three straight to Northern Arizona, UC Davis and Eastern Washington the month prior.

    
    The late-season surge also built much-needed momentum for Mickey Mental’s second season at the helm. Mental replaced Jay Hill, now defensive coordinator at UNLV, a coach who built Weber State into a perennial Big Sky championship contender.
    
    Mental’s second Wildcats team features Richie Munoz, thrown in at starting quarterback as a freshman and delivering with 10 touchdown passes against just one interceptions. Defense has long been a hallmark of Weber State teams, and the 2024 Wildcats build around outstanding pass-rusher Brayden Wilson and effective lane-clogging tackle Matt Herron.