My FCS Top 25 Ballot PLUS Bracketology
With some of the chaos from my North Carolina trip and a hectic (but so much fun) family Halloween now subsided, The Press Break is no longer slacking on FCS Top 25 ballot reveals.
AND, for good measure, Nov. 1 struck me as an appropriate time to debut some FCS Playoffs Bracketology.
The NCAA conducted a Top 10 reveal on Halloween week in the 2019 season, akin to the weekly College Football Playoff poll show and the one-month-from-Selection Sunday gimmick college basketball recently adopted.
FCS is no longer doing that, so I’m taking a stab without a safety net.
MY TOP 25 THROUGH WEEK 9:
North Dakota State
Sam Houston
James Madison
Montana State
Southern Illinois
Eastern Washington
Villanova
SELA
South Dakota State
UC Davis
Kennesaw State
ETSU
Northern Iowa
Montana
William & Mary
UT-Martin
Sacramento State
Missouri State
Jackson State
VMI
Princeton
South Dakota
Eastern Kentucky
Incarnate Word
Florida A&M
BRACKETOLOGY
A note on this exercise: I am more so predicting how the NCAA selection committee would map out the field today rather than applying my own rankings.
A few things to note, the Playoffs typically try to seed regionally for travel purposes — thus, you could end up with a team from the West being docked in order to avoid sending someone across the country for the 1st Round. I kept that in mind when dropping Montana to 15, elevating UT-Martin to 14, and formulating potential 2nd Round matchups that didn’t require too much travel for the better-seeded Round One winners.
Automatic Bids
To reiterate, the following is based on current standings. Noteworthy examples include Villanova as the CAA automatic bid, which would be the case currently as a result of the Wildcats’ head-to-head win against James Madison.
Mercer has the best record in the SoCon by virtue of playing one more conference game thus far, but the Bears have yet to play either VMI** or East Tennessee State so that could change.
**Editing note: That’s an error; VMI beat Mercer, as FCS Nation Radio pointed out.
Bryant is in a favorable position to reach its first-ever FCS Playoffs, boasting head-to-head wins over both Sacred Heart and St. Francis. That gives the Bulldogs the edge over both, which are tied with Bryant in the loss column.
AQ7: Sam Houston
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Kennesaw State
CAA: Villanova
MVFC: North Dakota State
NEC: Bryant
OVC: UT-Martin
Patriot: Holy Cross
Pioneer: Davidson
SoCon: Mercer*
Southland: SELA
At-Large Bids
The Big Sky is bottle-necked at the top but will start to have some clarity in the weeks to come. To wit, Eastern Washington plays Montana State and UC Davis in back-to-back weeks, Montana State has the Eagles and Brawl of the Wild against Montana, UC Davis and Sacramento State conclude each other.
The Missouri Valley faces a similar situation, with five total bids looking promising and a sixth team, South Dakota, right on the cusp. Concluding with North Dakota State and South Dakota State, the Coyotes could play their win in — or out, depending.
AQ7: Eastern Kentucky
Big Sky: Eastern Washington, UC Davis, Sacramento State, Montana
CAA: James Madison, William & Mary
MVFC: Southern Illinois, South Dakota State, Missouri State, South Dakota
SoCon: VMI, ETSU
Bubble Picture
As noted, South Dakota is probably my first team out. In projecting the field, I defaulted to Eastern Kentucky over USD to give a conference league that bid rather than load up on six MVFC entries.
Incarnate Word is also right on that cutline. The Cardinals likely need to win out, starting with this week against SELA. Beating the Lions could well give UIW the Southland automatic bid.
I’d also recommend keeping an eye on some 4-4 teams should they win out. Weber State’s win over Eastern Washington helps it salvage some postseason hope, and the Wildcats will likely be favorites in the final three-game stretch of Portland State, Southern Utah and Northern Colorado.
Likewise, Maine is one that intrigues me. The Black Bears started the season 1-4, losing to preseason top 8-ranked teams Delaware and James Madison, and at likely MAC champion Northern Illinois. Maine has won its last three, including a two-score defeat of suddenly red-hot William & Mary, and the Black Bears’ final three-game stretch is manageable.
A team with a six-game winning streak in one of the best FCS conferences will be deserving of being in the conversation. William & Mary winning the CAA would be a huge boost to Maine’s chances; the Black Bears will also likely need Elon to drop one more, as a 7-4 Phoenix team with the head-to-head at Maine complicates the case.
SWAC Bid Stealers?
The SWAC has long passed on the FCS Playoffs, instead focusing its postseason attention on the conference championship game and, in recent years, the Celebration Bowl with fellow HBCU league the MEAC.
Because of the setup with the SWAC Championship Game coinciding with the Second Round of the FCS Playoffs, the league’s two best teams couldn’t play in the tournament if they wanted. Rarely is their a third SWAC program not in the championship game good enough to be in the conversation for an at-large bid.
This season looks like an exception.
Jackson State has consumed much of the oxygen in the room as a result of Deion Sanders’ presence — even if Prime Time hasn’t been coaching the Tigers in recent weeks — but the Tigers are one of three Top 25-caliber teams leading the SWAC.
Prairie View A&M has just one loss and looks like it could run away in the West, setting up a SWAC Championship showdown with Jackson State. Right in the mix with the divisional leaders is Florida A&M. The Rattlers are 6-2 with their only losses coming in September against Jackson State (by one point) and USF.
They’re on a five-game winning streak, and should extend that to eight games by month’s end. Nine-win FAMU could bring an intriguing argument to the committee.