May 12 Q&A: Bronny James at USC, 12-Team Football Playoff, FCS Dark Horses

It’s been far too long since The Press Break opened up the proverbial mailbag. So, let’s do some Q&A! If you have questions for The Press Break, send a tweet [at]KyleKensing on Twitter or email pressbreaknewsletter@gmail.com.

The Football Championship Subdivision reached a point that, other than North Dakota State, any program one suggested for the national title would be considered a dark horse. James Madison might have been the exception, but even the Dukes won only one in their outstanding stretch from 2016 until leaving for the Sun Belt last year.

With that in mind — and preparing to eat crow come January — reigning national champion South Dakota State just may have proven itself ready to keep North Dakota State from its perch for the long haul. Either way, deviating from either Dakota State is inherently going with a dark horse.

The lone exception is Montana State, which reached the National Championship Game at the conclusion of the fall 2021 season and advanced to the semifinals a year ago. The Bobcats figure to once again be the favorite in the Big Sky, and perhaps the strongest contender to either NDSU or SDSU.

Going with any team outside of the MVFC or Colonial in the last 15 years has been going out on a limb. Beginning with the 2008 season — the first after the end of the Appalachian State dynasty — 13-of-15 national titles were won by teams from one of those two conferences, and one of the two exceptions was Sam Houston in the spring 2021 COVID campaign.

Big Sky: Idaho

Idaho broke through for a rare bowl appearance in 2016, its penultimate season as an FBS program. With the Sun Belt opting to no longer allow affiliate members and shrinking its regional footprint, University of Idaho brass opted to return to FCS and the Big Sky Conference — and despite having won nine games its next-to-last year at the FBS level, the Vandals didn’t exactly come in and start running roughshod over their old league.

In fact, last year’s 7-5 finish was Idaho’s first time finishing above .500 since reclassifying, but qualifying for the FCS Playoffs marked a major step in coach Jason Eck’s vision for the program.

A former South Dakota State assistant, Eck came to Moscow with firsthand experience building a winning FCS program — emphasis on FCS, as it never felt from this outsider perspective that Paul Petrino had the right approach, compared to the differences between the Championship and Bowl Subdivisions.

Idaho’s now constructed with an eye toward sustained FCS success, and the Vandals could contend for a Big Sky championship this season as a result. Quarterback Gevani McCoy won the Jerry Rice Award a season ago, given to the best freshman in FCS; for perspective into what that means, consider past recipients include Cooper Kupp, and the three winners preceding McCoy were Trey Lance, Cameron Ward (now at Washington) and Shedeur Sanders (now at Colorado).

McCoy will again throw to Hayden Hatten, an All-American wide receiver, and running back Anthony Woods rushed for a hair less than 900 yards while splitting carries.

Idaho loses considerable defensive production, but the offense promises to be among the most prolific in the country.

Colonial

Does a reigning co-conference champion qualify as a dark horse? Perhaps not, but New Hampshire flew under the radar much of last season en route to a 9-4 finish that included a share of the CAA title with William & Mary and was ranked just 13th in the final Top 25 poll.

I’ll be curious to see where UNH ranks in the preseason, but to me, it’s firmly a top-10 team with a healthy Max Brosmer at quarterback and one of the most exciting players in all of college football, Dylan Laube, at running back/special teams.

The UNH defense also features one of the most imposing pass-rush tandems in the country with Josiah Silver and Dylan Ruiz, who combined for 20.5 sacks a season ago.

But, if I’m copping out a bit nominating a co-champ from one of the better leagues as a dark horse, then in honor of the great Phil Steele, I’ll also offer a “Roulette Chip.”

For those unfamiliar with Phil Steele, the publisher of the in-depth college football preseason preview magazine runs an annual feature spotlighting a handful of dark horses he sees as having the potential to contend for the national championship. This list also includes one or two Roulette Chips, or long shots that while unlikely are not impossible.

Monmouth qualifies. The Hawks finished 5-6 in their inaugural CAA season, but five of those six were by a combined 29 points — and of the five, three were by nine points total. One was a seven-overtime, 48-46 marathon against Rhode Island.

Flip the result of those three narrow losses, and Monmouth is in the Playoffs.

Bringing back the nation’s leading rusher and Walter Payton Award finalist Jaden Shirden is a great jumping-off point; and while Monmouth lost Tony Muskett, in contention for the starting quarterback job at Virginia, Sacred Heart transfer quarterbacked the Pioneers to three Northeast Conference championships.

The Hawks need to improve defensively after giving up more than 34 points per game a season ago, but if they make strides on that side of the ball, the offense can be as good as any in the nation.

SoCon: Furman

In much the same way that I hesitate to mention New Hampshire as a dark horse by virtue of the Wildcats winning a share of the CAA in 2022, nominating Furman after a 10-win season seems like a copout.

However, it’s worth noting that since Appalachian State completed the three-peat from 2005 through 2007, the SoCon has been shut out of the National Championship Game. Thus, it’s not unreasonable to deem a SoCon team a dark horse from that perspective — but Furman should be damn good in 2023.

The Paladins return several key contributors from an outstanding defense, including linebacker Braden Gilby (94 tackles, 15 TFL, four sacks, two forced fumbles); BANDITs Alex Maier (4.5 sacks) and Luke Clark (four sacks, seven quarterback hurries); and nose guard Xavier Stephens (4.5 sacks, five quarterback hurries).

Furman also returns a 1,120-yard, 11-touchdown rusher in Dominic Roberto and Joshua Harris at wide receiver. While the loss of Ryan Miller, who caught 12 touchdowns in 2022, does a leave a hole in the offense, Harris has the qualities to smoothly transition into the No. 1 role.

Since neither basketball nor football was specified (and I intentionally didn’t ask so I could riff on both), let’s go for a two!

I tipped my hand a bit on football with the New Hampshire shoutout above. The co-defending champion Wildcats have a lot to like heading into 2023. The first month of the regular season , particularly starting Week 2 at Central Michigan, should tell a lot about UNH: The Wildcats host Dartmouth, typically one of the better teams from the Ivy League in Week 3, travel to potential CAA title contender Delaware in Week 4, then get a new-look Towson team before the bye week.

On the hardwood, it’s more difficult to pinpoint a favorite with the roster fluctuation and scheduling still to unfold over the offseason. However, Pat Kelsey managed to keep an invaluable corps together at College of Charleston.

Australian 3-point threat Reyne Smith is coming back, as is Croatian import and versatile big man Ante Brzovic. The addition of D-II transfer Bryce Butler from national runner-up West Liberty continues what’s proven to be a successful pipeline for the Cougars flowing.

Hofstra losing scoring machine Aaron Estrada to Alabama was a blow to the Pride, but Speedy Claxton’s done an outstanding job thus far in his head-coaching tenure and won’t be working with an empty cupboard. Likewise, Takayo Siddle exceeded all expectations in his first three seasons leading UNC Wilmington and has been active in recruiting the transfer portal.

With Drexel returning Amari Williams, one of the best rim-protectors in college basketball, his continued upward trajectory on offense could make him an NBA draft prospect as next season progresses. A talent like Williams is plenty around which to build a conference-title contender.

CAA hoops should be wildly competitive in 2023-24, but Charleston will head in as the team to beat.

Allow me to start the following from atop my soapbox. I don’t like the College Football Playoff in its current form, and I don’t like expansion to 12 despite theoretically providing more access, because the entire system feels more like a naked cash-grab and an appeal to casual fans at the expense of longtime college football enthusiasts — and there are a lot of people who loved college football before the assorted efforts to crown a “true” national champion began about 30 years ago!

The sport has been in the top three of popularity in America for decades not because of the end result, but because of the qualities that differentiated it: Qualities like tradition and rivalry and atmosphere, all of which have been sacrificed at the altar of TV via the Playoff.

What’s more, as The Press Break’s exercise examining the BCS years with a Plus-One national championship illustrates, there’s rarely a season that necessitates a 12-team postseason. Most years, there’s a chasm between the top 3-5 teams and the rest of the nation — and in the 2022 FBS season, the gap between No. 1 and No. 2 was absurd.

If this means teams like UCF in 2017 or Utah in 2008 get to play for a national championship that they deserved at least an opportunity to compete for, great. But nothing about the direction college football has taken since the ‘90s suggests to me that’s the intent.

Should the Big Ten and SEC gobble up more members, the 12-team Playoff starts to look an awful lot like the NFL Playoffs — right down to having two conferences of 16-20 members jockeying for those berths. With the Playoff falling outside the jurisdiction of the NCAA, or any other governing body with a vested interest in representing the entirety of college football, I don’t trust this system to function as anything more than another vehicle driving the sport toward being a lesser version of the NFL.

The hype around USC basketball heading into 2023-24 is likely to rival that of Colorado football in the latter’s first season under Deion Sanders — though in the case of the former, there’s a lot more substance to the excitement.

Andy Enfield has done an admirable job at a program that historically hasn’t been anything better than middling in the Pac-8/10/12, outside of the occasional peaks. USC is now a fixture in the NCAA Tournament, regularly produces pros, and reached the Elite Eight just two years ago.

However, proclamations that “the Pac-12 goes through USC,” which Jon Rothstein made and others echoed, are premature. SC hasn’t won a conference title since 1961 — and while in order for new powers any sport to emerge, their has to be a first, the two primary reasons the Trojans haven’t won the Pac are still around.

Both Arizona and UCLA lose talent to the pros, but Mick Cronin has recruited exceptionally well. Combined with his strategic acumen, which at UCLA has manifested in some of the most clean offensive basketball complementing aggressive defense, the Bruins won’t yield Los Angeles supremacy easily.

Likewise, Arizona routinely boasts the most collective talent in the league. Kylan Boswell with a year of experience and Alabama transfer Jaden Bradley make for an intriguing backcourt, and a healthy Oumar Ballo has All-American potential.

Indeed, I believe it’s hasty to label USC a favorite, and expectations would be considerable more tempered if Bronny James was any other blue-chip prospect.

What’s more, if the Trojans do break through for a conference title, it will more likely be because of returning leader and veteran Boogie Ellis, 2022 5-star prospect Vincent Iwuchukwu having a full, healthy offseason to continue his development, and the addition of Washington State transfer D.J. Rodman.

In fact, with Rodman announcing his transfer to SC this week, it’s my belief Bronny won’t be the most valuable son of an NBA legend on Enfield’s roster.

D.J. Rodman isn’t nearly the defender nor rebounder his Hall of Fame father Dennis was — but then, who is? — but he’s good enough in both phases to fill a need for the Trojans. He’s also an effective supplementary scoring option who shot better than 38 percent on 4.3 3-point attempts a game last season.

The A$AP Ferg lyric “mean li’l fadeaway” from the song Dennis Rodman much more accurately applies to D.J. than it does Dennis.

Content warning: Foul language…and a reference to Kyrie Irving.

As far as Bronny goes, I never like to put too much expectation on an incoming freshman nor be overly dismissive. Historically, undersized freshmen are not the cornerstones of championship-winning programs, and at 6-foot-3, he’s stepping into a void that 6-foot-8 Drew Peterson left.

Short answer: Conflicted.

To elaborate, I like the idea of EuroLeague being accessible to a wider American audience. The top European basketball organization is the second-highest quality professional league and operates with a style that differentiates its from the NBA in a way that would resonate with new viewers.

However, I am against monopolies in all forms and ESPN+ gives the vibe that it’s a few updates away from sending me to jail without passing Go and collecting $200. If EuroLeague was set to air live on the ESPN cable channels, great!

But going to Plus makes it just another property, like myriad college basketball and football leagues, the NHL, or some Major League Baseball, that’s being horded while the actual ESPN TV options fill airtime with dreck.

Give me live EuroLeagues instead of Stephen A. and J.J. Redick cutting wrestling promos on each other, or *shudders* more seasons of the dreadful Around The Horn.

As for who I like in this year’s Final Four: No clue, won’t guess.