Madness Comes Early: College Basketball Is Primed For A Chaotic March

Were I the czar of sports television, I would work with conferences to schedule marquee college basketball matchups all throughout the week immediately following the college football National Championship Game.

No level of prior planning could deliver by design a week more perfect for whetting viewers’ appetites for college hoops than this one. Two months out from Selection Sunday, the atmosphere already hums with the chaos of March Madness.

Let’s recap the carnage through Saturday:

Tuesday, Jan. 9

• Nebraska beats No. 1 Purdue, 88-72
  

• Iowa State beats No. 2 Houston, 57-53

• Boise State beats No. 17 Colorado State, 65-58

Wednesday, Jan. 10

• UCF beats No. 3 Kansas, 65-60

• Mississippi State beats No. 5 Tennessee, 77-72

• TCU beats No. 9 Oklahoma, 80-71

• Butler beats No. 11 Marquette, 69-62

Thursday, Jan. 11

• Santa Clara beats No. 23 Gonzaga, 77-76

Saturday, Jan. 13

• New Mexico beats No. 19 San Diego State, 88-70

• TCU beats No. 2 Houston, 68-67

• Washington State beats No. 8 Arizona, 73-70

• West Virginia beats No. 25 Texas, 76-73

The main headline from the turbulent week came after Wednesday’s results, when four top five-ranked teams lost to unranked opponents in a two-day stretch for the first time in the Associated Press Poll’s history. But in the days since, seven of the top 11, and 11 of the AP Top 25 also fell to unranked opponents.

And that’s not even accounting for some of the noteworthy shake-ups in unranked vs. unranked matchups.

• Washington dominated the second half against Arizona State, previously undefeated in Pac-12 play, to pick up its second straight win and potentially resurrect its NCAA Tournament hopes.

• Utah destroyed UCLA, 90-44, for the second-most lopsided loss in Bruins history.

• Boise State went from off the Tournament radar to building an impressive case over the course of three days, following up its defeat of No. 17 Colorado State with a 64-56 road win at Nevada. The Wolf Pack were 15-1 and winners of eight straight coming into Friday’s meeting.

• Appalachian State sent James Madison to the Dukes’ second Sun Belt Conference in a week, leaving the once-top 20-ranked JMU looking up at four teams in league.

• Saint Mary’s — seemingly dead as far as NCAA Tournament outlook goes just a month ago — continued its resurgence with a blowout of Santa Clara, just days after the Broncos beat Gonzaga.

• Drake’s bounce-back from a 22-point loss last Sunday at Belmont came in an 89-78 defeat over Indiana State — which turned around and routed Belmont by 30 on Saturday.

Perhaps an NCAA Tournament cannot get any more chaotic than last year’s postseason when a No. 16 seed beat the No. 1 overall seed and a pair of mid-major conference programs reached the Final Four to join another semifinalist that long that ago shuttered basketball.

However, January Madness suggests March 2023 could very well pale in comparison to March 2024 as far as unpredictability goes.

…Or it could lead to a homogeneous Tournament field. That’s one of the potential sub-plots piquing my attention at the end of a wild week.

A Six-Bid Mountain West?

Conferences considered mid-majors seem to be disproportionately punished for upsets. However, with San Diego State reaching last year’s National Championship Game and the league as a whole putting together a strong non-conference season, the Mountain West is uniquely positioned to shake off the typical mid-major stigma.

Wins like Colorado State’s blowout of Creighton carry wait, and Nevada’s defeat of TCU at the Diamond Head Classic just became a whole lot more significant in the last few days. Those bullet-points provide the Rams and Wolf Pack margin for error they might have lacked in the past, while improving the Tournament outlook for a surging team like Boise State.

With the Broncos’ wins over CSU and Nevada this week, Boise State joins San Diego State, New Mexico, Colorado State, Nevada and Utah State as one of six MW teams ranked in the KenPom top 50.

That’s as many as the Big East and just one fewer than the Big Ten or SEC.

Jamie Dixon and TCU are Cooking

There may not be a better active coach to have never appeared in the Final Four than Jamie Dixon. His 2023-24 TCU Horned Frogs looked capable of ending that dubious distinction this week.

Quite the limb I’m going out on after wins or top 10-ranked Oklahoma and Houston in succession. However, this impressive run started with a loss.

TCU’s 83-81 loss at Kansas last Saturday, decided on Hunter Dickinson’s late bucket, was a white-knuckle showdown with all the atmosphere of a Sweet 16 contest.

In that game, the Horned Frogs showed different ingredients necessary for any Final Four run:

• Emanuel Miller — who led the way offensively in the win over Oklahoma and scored the game-winner vs. Houston — is a reliable presence on the interior.

• Trevian Tennyson can catch fire from 3-point range. Any deep Tournament run needs a flammable outside shooter.

• Jameer Nelson Jr. is a spark off the bench who can provide clutch minutes.

Keep The Cougars On Your Bubble Radar

Its win over Arizona on Saturday bumps Washington State to No. 62 in KenPom rating at 12-5, after the Cougars opened the week with an impressive road defeat of USC.

Washington State dropped its three previous games against KenPom top 100 opponents — Utah, Colorado and Oregon — and a non-conference date to Mississippi State earlier in the campaign. The Cougars only had a win over Boise State to previously show for their tough scheduling.

But knocking off an Arizona team that was No. 2 in metrics rankings and USC, which was top 75, sets up Washington State well for a pivotal stretch in the coming weeks.

Four of the Cougars next five games are against KenPom top 100 opponents, which three of those matchups — Colorado, Utah and Washington — all opposite teams currently making their own at-large cases.

Should Washington State beat the Bay Area schools, Cal and Stanford, a 2-1 record against the aforementioned three-game gauntlet to follow should have a 16-6 Cougars team projecting squarely into the field ahead of the final month.

Kyle Smith has done well throughout his tenure on the Palouse, but this could be his most impressive team yet given the roster turnover Washington State endured after making the 2023 NIT.

Newcomers Isaac Jones — a transfer from Idaho — and freshman Myles Rice have jelled nicely to give Washington State a dynamic inside-outside tandem.